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One of the defecting Libyan Mirages in Malta |
The first factor is that the Libyan military is not a cohesive unit with a clear linear chain of command as is the Egyptian military for example. Perhaps it was intentionally designed that way to prevent a military coup. Some elements of the military have been sympathetic with the protesters and have even reportedly armed them to fight other pro-governments elements of the military. However, the likelihood of this happening with other factions of the military is slim to none. Take for example the Khamis Brigade, it's an entire brigade named after, and led by, Muammar Gaddafi's own son. It's safe to assume that they will fight till the last man and the last bullet as Seif Al Islam Gaddafi had warned on TV the night before.
Another element that will come into play when considering how likely the military is to perform a coup on Gaddafi is the fact that this is Libya, where the military is used to crush protests. In Egypt, the military has never in it's history been ordered to fire on the general public and were not about to begin now. The dirty work of the regime was carried out by Egypt's police force and state security apparatus, not the military. In Libya however, having the military use full force to crush the slightest acts of dissent is a normal thing and it's almost become as much of a regular duty to them as protecting their borders or patrolling their waters. To illustrate my point it's sufficient to state that Libya's Air Force has an entire squadron which is designated as the counter-insurgency squadron. So it will take a huge effort and a lot of of blood and sacrifice to force these elements of the military to change their minds. One thing is for sure; singing, chanting, and holding signs in a public square will not topple the regime in Libya. If anything, it will give the counter-insurgency squadron a more concentrated target for them to drop their bombs on.
Qaddafi (gaddafi) is a psychopath... I am really worried about how long this will go and how many more lives will be taken. The situation is becoming worst my the minute. The Libyans are being attacked violently and viscously. I don't think Qaddafi cares, and what really worries me is that I have this feeling that he wont be leaving or stepping down that easily.
ReplyDeleteHow someone like this psychopath got to rule a country still drives me crazy.